Ennustamisen vaikeudesta, ja tietokoneet antavat vääriä tuloksia

[Aikaisemmat mallit ovat olleet sillä ”kuumemmalla puolella”, tiedemiehet sanoivat.]

 

[Scientists said previous models may have been “on the hot side”.]

 

”Computer modelling used a decade ago to predict how quickly global average temperatures would rise may have forecast too much warming, a study has found.”

 

Tietokonemallimme antoivat liikaa lämpöä ennustuksiimme, mikä ei ole toteutunut vuoden 2000 jälkeen.

 

”The study, published this week in the journal Nature Geoscience, does not play down the threat which climate change has to the environment, and maintains that major reductions in emissions must be attained.

But the findings indicate the danger may not be as acute as was previously thought.”

[Myles Allen, professor of geosystem science at the University of Oxford and one of the study’s authors told The Times: “We haven’t seen that rapid acceleration in warming after 2000 that we see in the models. We haven’t seen that in the observations.”] http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-global-warming-paris-climate-agreement-nature-geoscience-myles-allen-michael-grubb-a7954496.html

 

[The original forecasts were based on twelve separate computer models made by universities and government institutes around the world, and were put together ten years ago, “so it’s not that surprising that it’s starting to divert a little bit from observations”, Professor Allen added.

According to The Times, another of the paper’s authors, Michael Grubb, a professor of international energy and climate change at University College London, admitted his earlier forecasting models had overplayed how temperatures would rise.]

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